Looking way up at “crank”

It’s Friday, which means that a lot of my Sciblings are busy taking their whacks at the cranks of the blogosphere. I’ll play!
I haven’t picked on Gribbit in something like a week, so I’m due. Thing is, I don’t know if he qualifies as a bona fide crank, because he doesn’t know enough science terminology to come up with the type of crazy crap the flat-earthers, 9/11 conspiracy mongerers, antivaccination nuts and Noah’s arkyologists routinely produce; instead he just parrots misinformation and cataclysmically poor opinions he collects from slightly more ambitious and far-reaching deniers, delusionals, and pissed-off wahoos than himself.
Anyway, here’s what he writes, not for the first time, about climate change (and please click that link even if you close the resulting new window immediately):

The arrogant idea that man has the power to effect the world’s climate shows that man, no matter how intelligent we are, can’t realize that we don’t control the world, we are part of it … The earth’s climate has been changing since the planet came into existence … If there were no humans, no cars, no industrialization, no wasteful incandescent light bulbs, and no burning of fossil fuels to heat and light homes, then what prey tell is the explanation for temperatures in excess of those we are currently experiencing? … -Crickets- … How about natural cyclic phenomena?
Current science better supports the idea that sunspot activity, not carbon dioxide has a direct effect on the levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapor. Water vapor is produced by the world’s oceans, lakes, rivers, and streams and it is this water vapor which is trapping the heat in NOT carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide makes up 1/400th of 1% of all the gases in our atmosphere. Of that, man is responsible for approximately 3%. So if we were to halt all of man’s contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, at best we would be saving an unimpressive 6 Billion Metric Tons. There would still be an estimated 180 Billion Metric Tons entering without man’s contribution.
Along with this is the fact that increases in carbon dioxide levels lag temperature increases by 10 to 20 years. So literally increases in CO2 are the result of, not the cause of global warming.

Cute, eh? Very nice use of the post hoc, ergo propter hoc logical fallacy there at the end, too.
The paragraph I bolded is where Gribbit most visibly goes off the rails. I mentioned this in a recent post in which I reproduced some of this fellow’s garbage, but once again, with feeling: He doesn’t understand that a small percentile increase in something can have drastic consequences. He doesn’t get the fact that just because most heat-trapping gases are produced naturally in no way negates the impact of adding fractionally more. I bet that if pressed Gribbit he would admit that he feels a lot more uncomfortable at 315 Kelvin than at 300 (that’s 108 degrees Fahrenheit versus 80, 42 C versus 27). But why should he? There’s only a 5% difference between those figures!
So if a two-degree rise in ocean temps in the southwestern Atlantic is sufficient to melt Arctic ice and consequently flood coastal and lakeside metropolitan areas (including Cleveland) and also drive increasingly powerful hurricances, who cares, right? It’s nature at work, not us! What’s another 6 Billion Metric Tons? It’s Just A God Damn Number, That’s What!
For people like this, ideology is the beginning and the end of the story. Gribbit doesn’t understand geoscience and doesn’t care to, and if for some reason the Republican Party were sold on the science unilaterally supporting the idea of human-caused climate change while the Dems denied it, Gribbit would be leading the charge calling for lowered greenhouse gas emissions and other policy changes. He’s a sucker and a sycophant, just how the Brownbacks and Inhofes and Coulters of the world like their supporters, and he’s far from a rare breed.
Just remember, folks: People like him may not be able to add two single-digit numbers without a calculator or tie their own shoes, but they can and do vote.

Looking way up at “crank”

It’s Friday, which means that a lot of my Sciblings are busy taking their whacks at the cranks of the blogosphere. I’ll play!
I haven’t picked on Gribbit in something like a week, so I’m due. Thing is, I don’t know if he qualifies as a bona fide crank, because he doesn’t know enough science terminology to come up with the type of crazy crap the flat-earthers, 9/11 conspiracy mongerers, antivaccination nuts and Noah’s arkyologists routinely produce; instead he just parrots misinformation and cataclysmically poor opinions he collects from slightly more ambitious and far-reaching deniers, delusionals, and pissed-off wahoos than himself.
Anyway, here’s what he writes, not for the first time, about climate change (and please click that link even if you close the resulting new window immediately):

The arrogant idea that man has the power to effect the world’s climate shows that man, no matter how intelligent we are, can’t realize that we don’t control the world, we are part of it … The earth’s climate has been changing since the planet came into existence … If there were no humans, no cars, no industrialization, no wasteful incandescent light bulbs, and no burning of fossil fuels to heat and light homes, then what prey tell is the explanation for temperatures in excess of those we are currently experiencing? … -Crickets- … How about natural cyclic phenomena?
Current science better supports the idea that sunspot activity, not carbon dioxide has a direct effect on the levels of greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. The most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapor. Water vapor is produced by the world’s oceans, lakes, rivers, and streams and it is this water vapor which is trapping the heat in NOT carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide makes up 1/400th of 1% of all the gases in our atmosphere. Of that, man is responsible for approximately 3%. So if we were to halt all of man’s contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, at best we would be saving an unimpressive 6 Billion Metric Tons. There would still be an estimated 180 Billion Metric Tons entering without man’s contribution.
Along with this is the fact that increases in carbon dioxide levels lag temperature increases by 10 to 20 years. So literally increases in CO2 are the result of, not the cause of global warming.

Cute, eh? Very nice use of the post hoc, ergo propter hoc logical fallacy there at the end, too.
The paragraph I bolded is where Gribbit most visibly goes off the rails. I mentioned this in a recent post in which I reproduced some of this fellow’s garbage, but once again, with feeling: He doesn’t understand that a small percentile increase in something can have drastic consequences. He doesn’t get the fact that just because most heat-trapping gases are produced naturally in no way negates the impact of adding fractionally more. I bet that if pressed Gribbit he would admit that he feels a lot more uncomfortable at 315 Kelvin than at 300 (that’s 108 degrees Fahrenheit versus 80, 42 C versus 27). But why should he? There’s only a 5% difference between those figures!
So if a two-degree rise in ocean temps in the southwestern Atlantic is sufficient to melt Arctic ice and consequently flood coastal and lakeside metropolitan areas (including Cleveland) and also drive increasingly powerful hurricances, who cares, right? It’s nature at work, not us! What’s another 6 Billion Metric Tons? It’s Just A God Damn Number, That’s What!
For people like this, ideology is the beginning and the end of the story. Gribbit doesn’t understand geoscience and doesn’t care to, and if for some reason the Republican Party were sold on the science unilaterally supporting the idea of human-caused climate change while the Dems denied it, Gribbit would be leading the charge calling for lowered greenhouse gas emissions and other policy changes. He’s a sucker and a sycophant, just how the Brownbacks and Inhofes and Coulters of the world like their supporters, and he’s far from a rare breed.
Just remember, folks: People like him may not be able to add two single-digit numbers without a calculator or tie their own shoes, but they can and do vote.

  1. #1 by erik on July 13, 2007 - 4:02 pm

    Hi- I have never been to your page before so I don’t know the background relationship between you two, but I don’t think his post hoc ergo propter hoc argument is as much of a sin as you imply. If his intent was to prove that higher temperatures cause CO2 to rise then I agree. But I think what he means is, “most people claim CO2 causes the temperature to rise but as you can see, the CO2 rise actually follows the temperature rise rather than preceding it so it is unlikely that it is the cause”.
    You see, just because the fact that something follows another doesn’t prove that it is caused by it, doesn’t mean that causes don’t almost always precede the effects.

  2. #2 by cucu on July 13, 2007 - 4:37 pm

    Actually the guy isn’t very good even with a calculator – CO2 is about 1/26 of 1% …

  3. #3 by Kevin Beck on July 13, 2007 - 4:41 pm

    I think what he means is, “most people claim CO2 causes the temperature to rise but as you can see, the CO2 rise actually follows the temperature rise rather than preceding it so it is unlikely that it is the cause”.
    He wrote “literally increases in CO2 are the result of, not the cause of global warming,” so it’s clear what he means. Your version would be a reasonable statement and therefore would never be seen emanating from “Bribbit’s World.”
    But on that issue specifically, he’s talking out of his ass. Let’s say the amount of industry-added CO2 to the atmosphere in 1970 is X and the mean global temperature is 25 C. Assume further that in 1980 these values were 1.1X and 25.5, in 1990 1.2X and 26.0, and in 2000 1.3X and 26.5. Now, one could readily state that the temperature rose from 25 to 25.5 long before CO2 reached its current unprecedented levels, but what does this say about a correlation between CO2 and warming? Frig-all, that’s what.
    I don’t know for sure this is what fed into Gribbit’s reasoning, and I’m sure he doesn’t either, but I’d bet on it.

  4. #4 by JimFiore on July 13, 2007 - 6:34 pm

    Gribbit is just another person for whom math is confusing. He is typical of the sort of person who thinks there is only one sort of relation between variables and that’s a linear function. He simply doesn’t understand that small changes can produce large effects. He assumes that changes over time would appear consistent from point to point, or worse, that in order for the output variable (temperature) to vary by a certain percentage, the input variable (greenhouse gases) must vary by the same percentage.
    None of this is surprising but it is entertaining in that usual dark sort of way. The most entertaining thing for me though is the phrase “Noah’s arkyologists”. If you made that up yourself, well, it’s pure gold so stand up and take a bow.

  5. #5 by Kevin Beck on July 13, 2007 - 6:53 pm

    “If you [made up the phrase 'Noah's arkyologists'] yourself, well, it’s pure gold so stand up and take a bow.”
    I did make it up, but it’s an open-source classification (or insult), so feel free to disseminate it without fear of being sued.

  6. #6 by llewelly on July 14, 2007 - 1:43 am

    Carbon dioxide makes up 1/400th of 1% of all the gases in our atmosphere. Of that, man is responsible for approximately 3%

    This is a centerpiece of many denialist arguments. Gribbit could have pasted it from any of a hundred places. Nonetheless, There’s more wrong in it than the poor reasoning you point out.
    ’1/400th of 1%’ is 2.5 * 10^5 – or 25 ppm . In fact, CO2 was about 275 ppm (11 times the popular figure) )in pre-industrial times, and is about 383 ppm (over 15 times the figure) today. Furthermore – humanity is responsible for 383 – 275, or 108 ppm. That’s 28% of the current amount. Gribbit’s source divides by 10 two extra times, leaving readers that humanity’s contributions to atmospheric CO2 is 1/100 what it really is.

  7. #7 by Tyler DiPietro on July 14, 2007 - 4:01 am

    Gribbit’s blather about water vapor being the “most important greenhouse gas” is also blather. It’s by far the single largest part of atmospheric composition percentage-wise, but it doesn’t act as a significant forcing. Water vapor has a much more ephemeral residency time in the atmosphere compared to CO2, making it’s effect largely a feedback rather than a driving agent in climate change.

  8. #8 by JimFiore on July 14, 2007 - 11:59 am

    llewelly, it gets better. Not only doesn’t he use correct values, he has no concept of what they MEAN. To the uninitiated, a statement such as “CO2 makes up 1/400 of 1% of atmospheric gases” is itself sufficient to cast doubt. Their thought is “Man made or not, how can such a tiny percentage be a problem?” It doesn’t matter if it’s 1/400 of 1% or 1/40 of 1%. The only time they deal with percents is when they go to the bank, and what they know is that even at 4%, a money market account’s interest won’t make them rich. Thus they just discount it. A fraction of one percent of anything is simply too small to worry about. But, one only needs to be reminded that consuming a small fraction of one percent of your body weight in arsenic just may have some measurable consequences.

  9. #9 by Bill from Dover on July 15, 2007 - 1:26 am

    …then what prey tell is the explanation for temperatures in excess of those we are currently experiencing?

    Does this mean I should hunt down a wabbit for an explanation?
    I just love reading these home-schooled ignoramuses.

  10. #10 by renovationdoctors on April 5, 2008 - 5:48 am

    Thanks man

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