A-Rod’s projected 2007 stats

After 18 games, or one-ninth of the regular-season schedule, the New York Yankees’ Alex Rodriguez is on pace for these totals (Major League records in parentheses):
Home runs — 126 (73, B. Bonds)
Runs batted in — 306 (191, H. Wilson)
Batting average — .400 (.426, G. Sisler)
Slugging average — 1.053 (.863, B. Ruth)
Hits — 270 (262, I. Suzuki)
Runs — 234 (177, B. Ruth)
Total bases — 711 (457, B. Ruth)
I’d wager that Rodriguez, who has already tied the major-league record for home runs in April (14), winds up much closer to his usual studly totals (.300 or so, 45-50 homers, 120-130 RBI) than to any records. I’m not a cynic, just a big believer in the tendency toward the mean. 162 games make for a long season in pro sports (football is one-tenth that number, hockey and basketball about half).
A-Rod also owns the richest deal in the history of professional sports, having inked a deal before the 2001 season that guaranteed him $25.2 million a year over ten years, plus incentives and aircraft and stuff, and not including endorsements. As someone who grew up a Red Sox fan, I also find it worth noting that Rodriguez certainly did his part to shit up the 2004 American League Championship Series, when the Yankees improbably blew a 3-0 series lead and dropped four in a row the eventual World Series Champion Sox.

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  1. #1 by Scott Simmons on April 25, 2007 - 8:41 am

    Yeah, I predict A-Rod will have a great regular season, and then choke in the playoffs again.
    Signed, a bitter Texas Rangers fan. :-(

  2. #2 by Rev. BigDumbChimp on April 25, 2007 - 10:02 am

    Too bad that on the year that A-Rod could contribute the most to the Yanks they are on a path to not do anything and I couldn’t be happier.
    Yes I know it’s still April.
    But I tend to agree, all the overblown speculation on numbers for A-Rod is just that. More than likely he’ll start to slow down and then the Yankee fans will all be up in arms about him again.
    Good. I hope they miss the playoffs.

  3. #3 by Kevin W. Parker on April 25, 2007 - 11:20 am

    I remember seeing a writeup on some well-documented way of turning early-season numbers into reasonably accurate full-season predictions. It involved taking into account the inevitable regression toward the mean, though I don’t recall just how this was done, just that it was purely mathematical.

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